By Retired Navy Admiral Patrick Walsh, former vice chief of Naval Operations, co-founder of The First Watch Group, and advisor to Amazon Leo for Government
“When Thomas Paine published his original work in January 1775…he initially planned to call his pamphlet The Plain Truth but his editor, Benjamin Rush…persuaded the author to name the work Common Sense, because the phrase fit Paine’s most important notions: that Americans should trust their feelings, rather than get bogged down in abstract political debates.”
— Patrick Kiger, How Thomas Paine’s Common Sense Helped Inspire the American Revolution
Today, as the U.S. Department of War increasingly relies on critical space assets—from satellite communications to reconnaissance platforms—officials should heed Paine’s timeless advice: apply common sense. Entrusting national security capabilities to a single commercial provider contradicts that wisdom, creating vulnerabilities where strategic stability depends on private agendas or individual personalities. Avoiding single-source dependency is not just a strategic choice—it’s a national security imperative.
The High Cost of Over-Reliance
History offers cautionary lessons on the pitfalls of vendor lock-in:
- Transformational Satellite Communications System (TSAT): Intended as a next-generation military satellite network, TSAT’s dependence on a single contractor led to extensive cost overruns, major schedule delays, and eventual cancellation—wasting over $3 billion and leaving a significant capability gap (GAO-06-537).
- Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Program: Initially designed for cost-effective space launches, EELV’s reliance on one provider drove launch prices into hundreds of millions per mission, stifled innovation, and severely limited the DoW’s ability to adapt to new threats (GAO-06-391)—a scenario increasingly relevant as today’s commercial providers also risk prioritizing private or political agendas.
- GPS III Modernization: Reliance on a single contractor contributed to serious delays and cost escalations, impacting the timely deployment of critical navigation capabilities and exposing warfighters to greater risks (GAO-24-106841).
These cases highlight a clear lesson: over-reliance on a single provider sacrifices the resilience and agility needed to stay ahead of evolving threats—affecting far more than budgets, directly undermining our military readiness.
The Strategic Imperative for Competition
Competition is more than a market principle; it is a defense strategy. As adversaries rapidly advance space capabilities, the U.S. must foster multiple providers delivering overlapping, complementary services. Competition drives innovation, enhances resilience, and ensures cost efficiency. While recent commercial advancements have reshaped the launch landscape, reliance on any single provider risks repeating past mistakes. When vital systems are vulnerable to personality-driven decision-making or political backlash, routine disagreements can escalate rapidly into operational threats. A resilient defense posture demands redundancy and competition—not dependence on one commercial gatekeeper.
Early Capacity Reservation: A Smart Bet
Securing space capabilities in advance through early capacity reservations proactively prevents bottlenecks. Commercial sectors like aviation and maritime already reserve satellite bandwidth to ensure timely access. For the DoW, early capacity reservations ensure availability and shape future capabilities. By reserving capacity with multiple providers, the DoW can influence industry roadmaps, align technology development with national security priorities, incentivize innovation, and reduce vendor lock-in. Early commitments also clearly signal defense needs, embedding military requirements into new system designs from the start.
Policy Recommendations
Congress and the Pentagon must take decisive action to avoid repeating past mistakes. Incorporating language in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to encourage early capacity reservations with multiple providers would secure access to space capabilities, foster competition, and mitigate single-source risks. Additionally, promoting flexible, non-traditional acquisition strategies such as Other Transaction Authorities (OTAs) will help rapidly integrate emerging technologies and innovative solutions. Prioritizing commercial solutions where feasible allows the government to benefit from private-sector efficiency and advancements.
The Time to Act is Now
As adversaries challenge U.S. dominance in space, the DoW faces a critical choice: cling to outdated procurement models or risk dependency driven by convenience and short-term thinking. Recent tensions illustrate the dangers when vital capabilities lie beyond direct military control and become subject to private-sector politics or personal disagreements. Championing competition and avoiding vendor lock-in ensures warfighters have the capabilities they need—when and where they need them. America’s national security demands strength through competition—not vulnerability through dependence…and that is Common Sense.
