SpaceX ($SPCX) began trading on the NASDAQ on Friday, closing the day at $161.11—19% higher than its IPO target price of $135.
SpaceX’s strong first day out was coupled with a significant pullback among investors in other publicly traded space companies, sending major players down across the board, including:
- Planet Labs ($PL): -8.8%
- Rocket Lab ($RKLB): -10.8%
- EchoStar ($SATS): -11%
- Intuitive Machines ($LUNR): -13.1%
- AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS): -15.5%
- And Virgin Galactic ($SPCE): -31.8%
Making sense: For long-time space investors, the single-day dip could be explained—at least in part—by some investors switching teams.
“My best guess is that space-focused investors wanted to capture at least some of their gains…while switching their investment over to SpaceX to see how far it might pop,” said Micah Walter-Range, president of the space industry consultancy Caelus Partners and contributor to the VettaFi Space Index (the index behind the Procure Space ETF ($UFO)).
Walter-Range went on to say that SpaceX’s negative impact on the rest of the space equities market “ought to be a temporary correction,” arguing that SpaceX’s entrance into the market will shed more light on the industry, and attract new capital as a result.
In a similar vein, Tejas Dessai, director of thematic research at Global X ETFs (which manages the space-focused ETF $ORBX), told Payload that while SpaceX’s IPO brings new interest into the market, it’s too early to determine where the real value lies.
“Friday’s volatility is just background noise next to the massive, multi-decade trajectory of the space economy,” Dessai said. “The most explosive growth over the next few years may actually emerge from developing niches, such as advanced data services, strategic launch capabilities, and defense applications.”
More turbulence ahead: After just one day of trading, it’s too early to gauge SpaceX’s real impact on the rest of the market. There are also a few milestones ahead that might cause further volatility before the charts settle down.
- Space focused ETFs—like $ORBX and $UFO—could begin to include shares of SpaceX over the coming weeks.
- In early July, SpaceX is expected to join the NASDAQ-100—an index buy that could further increase the stock price.
- SpaceX insiders—employees, and long-time investors—will have to wait until the company’s Q2 earnings to sell 20% of their stake in the company, which could drive the price down temporarily.
- SpaceX is also expected to join the S&P 500 next year—if it can meet the S&P’s GAAP profitability criteria.
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JAXA notched a successful return to flight for its H3 rocket following its failure in December.
The rocket launched on its eighth mission—the first successful flight of the new three-engine variant—Friday morning from Japan’s Tanegashima Space Center, delivering all six of its payloads to space.
“The launch vehicle flew as planned, and the second stage of the H3 launch vehicle was injected into the predetermined orbit,” JAXA said in a statement. “JAXA appreciates all for the support shown on behalf of the launch.”
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