President Donald Trump likes expensive things. So he’s probably going to love the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, which estimates the Golden Dome missile-defense system could cost $1.2T over the next 20 years.
The estimate is an order of magnitude larger than the $185B figure proposed by Golden Dome chief Gen. Michael Guetlein in March—in large part because of the “limited information available” about the architecture of the missile defense system. The report explains the discrepancy in one of two ways:
- The Pentagon’s plan is more limited than the architecture CBO priced out, based on the Presidents original “Iron Dome” EO;
- DoD might expect other agencies to contribute “significant funding” to the project.
The estimate: Luckily for the US space industry, the cost to acquire and operate a fleet of space-based interceptor (SBI) satellites accounts for ~70% of the estimate.
- The estimate assumes an average cost per satellite of $22M, and a launch cost of $500/kg.
- A constellation of 7,800 SBI sats—which would need refreshing every five years—would cost $723B to acquire, and $1B per year to operate for the next 20 years.
While the total figure is staggering, it doesn’t include many of the costs that could arise during the Golden Dome’s development and deployment, including:
- R&D for technologies not included in the notional Golden Dome architecture, such as directed-energy weapons;
- Comms systems to connect multiple missile-defense sites;
- Any costs associated with deploying conventional forces, such as Navy missile-defense ships;
- Any SBI satellites focused on intercepting missiles after the boost phase;
- Any systems to counter small drone attacks, beyond those directed at missile-defense sites;
- Any land acquisitions associated with Golden Dome defense sites.
The CBO also cautioned that costs could grow even higher over time. Factors include:
- If labor or raw material costs increase faster than inflation;
- If requirements change;
- If annual funding levels hamper production rates;
- If unanticipated technical challenges arise.
Filling the cracks: While the DoD has been secretive about the specifics of the planned Golden Dome architecture, the CBO pointed to many ways in which adversaries could attempt to overwhelm any system the US eventually builds. While CBO acknowledged it would be an improvement over current defenses, the report states that—even at that price tag—“it would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack of the sort that Russia or China might be able to launch.”
The CBO estimate assumes that Golden Dome would be capable of defending the US against 10 ICBMs launched simultaneously. Anything more complex would only further increase costs—potentially requiring a larger constellation of SBI sats.
Adversaries could still break through this defense by increasing their arsenals and launching overwhelming attacks, the CBO stated, which could lead the US to balloon its defenses even further than the Golden Dome architecture analyzed here.
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