Last Thursday and Friday, we asked readers: “Now that Starship is moving forward in South Texas, we want to hear your predictions. When will Starship make its first orbital flight attempt?” We received 145 votes in total.
Wednesday’s planned Starship launch may be the seventh test flight of the mega-rocket, but it also represents a couple of important firsts—the first flight of the new and improved second stage and the first time the rocket will attempt to deploy payloads.
Based on publicly available data from 20 launches with published payload mass numbers over the past three years, dedicated customer LEO launches have averaged just 3,370 kg of payload, just 19% of total capacity.
Despite the Space Force’s bold plans for 2025, many in the space industry believe that US launch capacity may be nearing its zenith.
In 2024, US (*ahem, SpaceX*) launch numbers grew, while China, Russia, and Europe plateaued.
