While China is making all the headlines in Space Race 2.0, a DC think tank is cautioning policy makers not to forget about the threat posed by Russia in orbit.
The Atlantic Council published a report looking at Russian capabilities in space—and why existing US policy and resilience is not good enough to protect American space assets.
Context: The paper explores four reasons why Moscow may be more likely to escalate confrontations in space.
- Russian concerns about its own vulnerabilities make Russia more likely to misinterpret US actions in orbit as an attempt to disarm Moscow’s military infrastructure—and for the Russians to react accordingly.
- Moscow could go after America’s space assets, to hurt US access to space for data and intelligence, thereby gaining a terrestrial advantage.
- US resilience in the face of an attack might not be enough to deter Russia from escalating actions in orbit.
- Russia may be more willing to accept self-inflicted damage in orbit, for strategic gains.
The report also game-plans how Russia, the US, American allies, and China would likely react during several conflicts in space, including a nuclear detonation in LEO, an anti-satellite attack that generated debris, and attacks on commercial space assets.
Next steps: The Atlantic Council made 15 recommendations, such as:
- Fielding missile-defense capabilities (cough cough Golden Dome) to stop nuclear or ASAT attacks before they start.
- Improve debris-tracking tech, to better navigate a debris-causing event.
- Build relationships with Indian and Chinese officials as intermediaries to Russia, to avoid escalation or misinterpretation in orbit.
Read more: Dive deeper into the full 88-page report here.
