Note: This is Payload Research analysis from our models and publicly available data. Estimates are derived from Payload assumptions and not based on access to any SpaceX internal data.

Payload is back with our SpaceX revenue breakdown. In 2024, we estimate SpaceX’s revenue reached $13.1B in 2024, up from $8.7B in 2023. Business line estimates:

• Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
• Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
  • Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
• Other revenue was $720M last year

Revisiting our predictions: Our end-of-year 2024 estimates were within $200M of the $13.3B revenue we predicted 12 months ago. However, we initially forecasted launch would account for $5.5B of revenue and Starlink would generate $6.8B, on 3.8M of Starlink customers. 

Revenue build: Below is Payload’s revised 2024 SpaceX revenue model build. We will discuss end-of-year results, pricing assumptions, revisions to our model, and growth drivers compared to 2023.  

Key Build Notes

Launch revenue 

The company initially planned 148 Falcon launches in 2024; we were more conservative at the year’s onset, predicting 140 launches. The final Falcon launch count was 134 missions, up from 96 in 2023. 

The lower-than-anticipated launch volume was primarily due to three Falcon 9 groundings. Customer delays and a healthy dose of dedicated Starlink launches also adversely affected launch revenue. Nonetheless, we estimate launch sales reached $4.2B in 2024, a 19% YoY growth. 

• Customer vs. Starlink-dedicated launches: Government launches (17 in 2024 vs. 9 in 2023) were primarily responsible for the revenue jump and made up for the weaker-than-expected commercial launches. In 2024, there were only 18 standard commercial launches, just four more flights better than the previous year.
  • 66% of SpaceX Falcon launches were dedicated Starlink missions (89 flights). Those launches are zero-revenue missions.
• Transporter/Bandwagon: We revised SpaceX’s per-mission rideshare revenue down to $25M based on better insight into the program. 
• Crewed: SpaceX launched four crewed missions last year, with Ax-4 pushed to 2025.  
• + HLS: According to public records, NASA paid SpaceX $620M this year for its work on its lander. 

Starlink revenue 

Starlink’s customer base doubled last year, adding 2.3M customers—an acceleration from 2023, when it added 1M.

Heavily discounted terminal prices, higher capacity, and the introduction of new products (including the backpack-sized Mini) contributed to the higher-than-expected Starlink customer growth. With product awareness picking up steam, Starlink has successfully grown its addressable market. 

• Hardware sales: In 2024, SpaceX sold 3.9M terminal kits, netting 2.3M new customers. The ratio provides some insights on churn, usage, bulk order dynamics, and how Starlink defines ‘customers.’
  • SpaceX says its Bastrop facility is now the largest printed circuit board (PCB) factory in the US as it has ramped up production capacity to 5.5M units annually.
• Domestic vs. international mix: In 2023, SpaceX said US customers accounted for 59% of total customers. We estimate that percentage declined to roughly 48% of total customers as the service continues to spread rapidly internationally. Starlink is available in 118 countries/territories, covering 2.8B people. 
• Residential: While SpaceX did not disclose the number of residential customers at year end, we estimate that Starlink had roughly 3.5M—accounting for over 75% of its customer base.
  • Terminal pricing: We modeled the average revenue per residential terminal declined to roughly $375—down from $550 in 2023—as Starlink slashed pricing and leaned into third-party retail sellers throughout the year. The discounted terminals allowed Starlink to grow its user base dramatically. Here is a good tidbit for understanding market size: Starlink has already been installed in 3-4% of all Canadian homes, despite launching just a few years ago.
  • Subscription pricing: We assumed $85/mo residential ARPU, slightly lower than the $95/mo we originally forecast. Domestic Starlink residential pricing is either $90 or $120/mo, depending on region capacity. International pricing for high-income/high-use countries (like Australia, Canada, and the UK) is approximately $95/mo. Pricing for other countries is much lower, averaging roughly $45/mo. 
• Maritime: Starlink connected 75,000+ vessels in 2024, including 300 cruise ships. Starlink is scooping up expiring satcom contracts for yachts, cruise, and cargo ships, hand over fist. However, the primary driver of the customer bump has been smaller boat sign-ups. It is another example of the service not just cannibalizing competitor contracts, but also expanding the market.
  • The 75,000+ vessels figure was among the most surprising in SpaceX’s end-of-year report, considering the company had only 10,000 maritime customers in 2023. We initially expected customer growth to double to 20,000, but instead, it grew by 7x. In 2024, SpaceX offered lower-cost maritime consumer terminals, boosting growth.
  • Unlike most other satcom providers, Starlink is a month-to-month service with the option to pause subscriptions. The turn-on/turn-off dynamic is particularly relevant in the maritime world. The seasonality is reflected in our model.  
• Roam: We estimate SpaceX has signed up 900,000 Starlink Roam customers, up from the 400,000 it said it had in 2023. In June, Starlink introduced its backpack-sized mini terminal,  significantly increasing the product’s accessibility. Starlink Mini is priced at a premium to other terminals: $599. Similar to maritime, Roam seasonality is reflected in our model. 
• Fixed-Site Business: At the end of 2023, Starlink had 60,000 fixed-site business customers. We estimate that number nearly tripled to 150,000 (just 3.3% of total customers) in 2024.
  • Starlink generates the majority of its revenue from the consumer market, despite the satcom industry’s historically business-focused nature.
• Aviation: Starlink said its terminals were installed on 450 aircraft at the end of 2024, up from 80 in 2023. This increase was in line with our forecasts. SpaceX has 2,000 additional aircraft under contract.
  • Aviation is a commonly cited use case for Starlink. Plane WiFi sucks; high-speed LEO satcom is the only solution. However, the market size is relatively small, with aviation being Starlink’s smallest revenue bucket. 
• Government and enhanced cybersecurity: This category includes all revenue from government agencies, including Starlink and Starshield used for warfighting capabilities and allied use. We estimate the category hit $2B in revenue last year, much higher than the $480M we predicted. As the year progressed, it became increasingly clear how indispensable Starlink has become to both civil and military agencies.
  • One of the most important DoD stories in 2024 was the Pentagon announcing it was increasing its budget for Proliferated Low Earth Orbit (PLEO) Satellite-Base Services from $900M to $13B. Warfighter demand for reliable and high-speed connectivity for both field operations and base connectivity is through the roof. Most of that revenue will accrue to Starlink, the only US-based LEO satcom provider able to provide fiber-like speeds. Starlink is having a domino effect: once a platoon gets access to high-speed internet anywhere, neighboring units will also demand the service. 
  • It was also revealed this year that SpaceX signed a $1.8B contract with the NRO to provide remote-sensing Starshield satellites. The company launched over 100 of those birds over six missions in 2024. 
  • SpaceX also generates significant revenue from selling Starlink to allies like Ukraine and Israel. 
• Direct to Cell and Community Gateway: SpaceX installed just seven Community Gateways (surprisingly small) this year, and has yet to begin wide-scale commercial service of its DTC capability. As a result, we assumed minimal revenue for other Starlink services.