The Space Development Agency (SDA) announced last week it is pushing the launch of its Tranche 1 satellites until late summer due to system readiness and supply chain issues.
Officials said they would then target a one-per-month launch cadence until the 158-bird T1 constellation is fully deployed in early 2027.
Ups and downs: SDA deployed 27 Tranche 0 prototype sats in 2023. Tranche 1 launches were scheduled to begin in September 2024 but are now a year behind schedule. The launch push is another speed bump in the agency’s rollercoaster start of the year.
- January:
- In early January, agency director Derek Tournear was placed on leave for alleged mishandling of an SDA contract.
- In his first week in office, Trump issued an executive order to build a Golden Dome (FKA Iron Dome) missile defense system, putting the Space Force and SDA at the forefront of a key defense initiative.
- February:
- March:
- SDA announced that it pushed the start of Tranche 1 launches to Q3.
Tranche 0 Criticism
The delay comes a few weeks after the GAO released a report criticizing the SDA for the underwhelming performance of the PWSA Tranche 0 laser link tests. The report says this could add system risks to future tranches.
The watchdog said that out of the eight Tranche 0 optical comms tests, SpaceX successfully demonstrated three demos, York completed one, and satellites built by Lockheed and L3Harris have yet to complete any.
“About one quarter into the 5-year design life of the first T0 satellites, limited capability has been demonstrated,” the GAO wrote. SDA said it met ‘baseline objectives’ and will continue incorporating lessons learned into its iterative approach.
The GAO worries that Tranche 0 has not sufficiently reduced risk for future tranches, and the SDA is pushing forward with Tranche 1 launches without properly incorporating changes.
Where Does SDA Stand?
SDA’s iteration: One of SDA’s key objectives is to disrupt traditional satellite procurement, which has bogged down the DoD’s space operations and budgets with inefficiencies for years.
Historically, the Pentagon spent $500M to $3B to acquire one satellite. The exquisite GEO satellites often took over 5 years to build, and by the time they launched, tech and warfighter needs would have changed substantially.
Instead of spending billions of dollars per satellite, SDA offers an alternative: build hundreds of low-cost satellites for its proliferated warfighter space architecture (PWSA) constellation, deploy them quickly, fail fast, and improve with every launch. The agency has already committed roughly $11B to the constellation—not for 11 birds, but for 457.
Low cost per satellite:
- Tranche 0: $23M
- Tranche 1: $22M
- Tranche 2: $24M
The inherent issue with buying low-cost satellites is you get low-cost satellites. In the case of Tranche 0, that means satellites that don’t hit all of their laser link milestones.
Can you stomach the losses? Over the past 5-10 years, federal space agencies have gone all in on a low-cost procurement, ramping up risks within the program. Not surprisingly, the track record has been mixed.
Take NASA’s multi-billion dollar Commercial Lunar Payload Service (CLPS) program: the program has launched four lunar landers: one failed to reach the Moon (Astrobotic), two landed but toppled over (Intuitive Machines), and just one was fully successful (Firefly).
Recently, other NASA low-cost planetary missions have also failed, highlighted by to Ars Technica:
- Q-PACE (2021):
- LunaH-Map (2022):
- Janus (2022):
- Lunar Trailblazer (2025):
The right approach: In the GAO report, the agency generally concurs with SDA’s iterative approach. Their primary issue is that there is not enough time in between deployment→ in-orbit demo testing→sharing lessons learned→incorporating changes→ launching the next tranche of satellites.
Two weeks after the GAO report, the SDA decided to pump the breaks on launch cadence by half a year, citing “system readiness.”
Nonetheless, the SDA believes setting up 2-year contracting periods allows the agency to:
- Continuously evolve its constellation based on new threats
- Incorporate new technology as soon as it becomes available
- Maintain a robust and diverse industrial base by spreading out contract wins and encourage manufacturing ramp
SDA Budget
The SDA’s annual budget is $4.2B. Through 2029, the SDA plans to spend $35B on the PWSA constellation.
Golden Dome: On Jan. 27, President Trump announced a next-gen missile defense system, later named Golden Dome for America. The proposed system would defend the US homeland from rapidly evolving missile threats, similar to Israel’s Iron Dome. The order explicitly called out the acceleration of tracking space sensor layers, space-based interceptors, and PWSA.
The initiative could be a boon for the space industry. Space Force General Michael Guetlein said the project would require collaboration “on the magnitude of the Manhattan Project.” The agency is already planning.
The DoD said it is looking to cut its budget by 8% ($50B) to help pay for the missile defense system and other administration priorities, such as the border.
